UK economic growth revised higher as recovery boosts incomes

The UK economy grew faster than previously thought in the opening quarter of the year. Gross domestic product rose 0.4% in the first three months of the year, revised up from a prior estimate of 0.3%. The upward revision will mean the hawks at the Bank of England will pile more pressure on the other policymakers to consider hiking interest rates, especially as robust economic growth is now being accompanied by stronger pay pressures and rising incomes.

Japanese industrial production on course for second quarter downturn

Having risen a buoyant 1.2% in April, some payback in May was always likely, but the 2.2% drop in Japan’s industrial production seen last month was far larger than consensus expectation of a 0.8% decline. The disappointing data call into question Japan’s ability to sustain its rebound from last year’s brief recession, corroborating the bout of renewed weakness seen in the country’s manufacturing PMI survey.

June US flash PMI data signal marked slowdown in economic growth

Survey data signalling robust second quarter economic growth, strong employment gains and rising inflation add to pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates. But a slowdown in the pace of expansion in June may give the Fed a further pause for thought before hiking interest rates.

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US factories report weakest growth since October 2013

US manufacturers reported a disappointing end to the second quarter, with factory output growing at the slowest rate for a year-and-a-half.

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Eurozone flash PMI hits four-year high in June

Despite the cloud of the Greek debt crisis hanging over the region, the eurozone saw economic growth accelerate to a four-year high in June. Markit’s flash Eurozone PMI, based on around 85% of usual monthly survey replies, rose from 53.6 in May to 54.1 in June, its highest since May 2011 and comfortably beating analysts’ expectations.

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Japan manufacturing PMI dips below 50 to end worst quarter for over two years

A slight deterioration of business conditions in June rounded off the worst quarter for just over two years for Japan’s manufacturers.

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UK deficit reduction aided by income tax surge

The economic upturn, and the buoyant labour market in particular, is feeding through to big improvements in government borrowing figures. Better than anticipated tax revenues could perhaps even pave the way for a less aggressive stance on spending cuts, sources of which are becoming increasing hard to identify.

Resurgent UK pay growth removes major barrier to higher interest rates

A surge in UK wage growth to a six-year high brings welcome news that the economic recovery is feeling through to pay packets, but also ups the odds of interest rates rising this year.

The Fed and USD – All you need to know – MM #54

It’s a big Fed decision, with no strains attached. We provide the background, scenarios and potential USD reactions – all you need to know. We continue by tackling Greece from two angles: the current situation and bank stocks.

You are welcome to listen, subscribe and provide feedback.

Read the rest of the article The Fed and USD – All you need to know – MM #54

Trade Ideas For EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - UBS

The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD

Is The Bond Market All QE'd Out? - Citi

While the present moves in the long end of the curves (US and Germany in particular) have been pretty aggressive we suspect that there is still more to come.&nbsp

A Greek Deal Slips Away Again; What Is The Trade? - BNPP

Prospects for a Greek deal are slipping away again as Athens’ Sunday night proposal was deemed inadequate by creditors, notes BNP Paribas

EUR/USD: Trading The German ZEW Economic Sentiment

German ZEW Economic Sentiment is based on a monthly survey of institutional investors and analysts and their views of the German economy. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the euro.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Read the rest of the article EUR/USD: Trading The German ZEW Economic Sentiment

End-game for Greece

One of the most over-used phrases of recent years in Europe has been “crunch time for Greece”, but this time, it really feels like it is. Yesterday’s talks ended rather abruptly and the focus falls now onto Thursday’s meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. If any deal is to be ratified by the Greek parliament before the end of the month, then this time is really does seem like the end-game (another over-used phrase). Don’t forget that the ECB meet the day before for a non-monetary policy meeting where the issue of ELA (emergency liquidity assistance) for Greece is likely to be discussed. Such measures are effectively keeping the Greek banking sector afloat. But the ECB faces the balance between liquidity and solvency and the latter is increasingly being brought into question as a deal to keep the country solvent looks ever more elusive. ECB President Draghi speaks to the European Parliament today during his questioning. The single currency gapped around 40 pips lower at the start of Asia trade as a result of the lack of weekend developments. We’ve seen the yield spread between Germany and other peripheral markets increase, with Italy near to 150bp over Germany on 10 year bonds, from having been around 120bp a month ago.

The data calendar is relatively quiet for the start of the week. Both Japan and the US will consider monetary policy later in the week (Friday and Wednesday respectively), although no changes are expected on either. UK inflation data is seen Tuesday, with a recovery back into positive territory expected for the headline rate from the -0.1% reading on the April reading. Overall thought volatility is likely to remain on the high side, both on the single currency and also beyond given the contagion effects we are already seeing in other markets.

Read the rest of the article End-game for Greece

The Case For Staying Short EUR/USD Into FOMC – Barclays

EUR/USD already began the week with a storm on the Greek crisis. But much more action is probably ahead on the road.

The team at Barclays focuses on the FOMC and explains why going short is a good option:

Read the rest of the article The Case For Staying Short EUR/USD Into FOMC – Barclays

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD - SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group