US employment surge helps allay short-term growth worries

US employment growth rebounded with a vengeance in June, but the underlying trend remains one of a slowdown in hiring, and it's far from clear whether June's bumper non-farm payroll increase reflects a renewed appetite among companies to hire staff.

Global economy sees worst quarter since 2012

The JPMorgan Global PMI™, compiled by Markit from its worldwide business surveys, held steady at 51.1 in June, rounding off the weakest quarter since the fourth quarter of 2012. The data point to global GDP rising at market prices at an annual rate of just 1.5%, below the long-run average of 2.3%. Emerging markets remained in an overall state of stagnation, continuing the trend seen over much of the past year. Developed world growth meanwhile slipped to the second-lowest in just over three years, maintaining the sluggish growth profile seen since February.

UK hiring falls for first time in nearly four years amid rising Brexit uncertainty

The number of people placed in permanent jobs by recruitment agencies fell in June, dropping for the first time since September 2012 as Brexit uncertainty intensified.

UK industry enjoys fastest growth for six years ahead of Brexit vote

UK industry was growing at the fastest rate for six years in the three months to May, according to official data, but there are serious doubts as to whether such buoyant performance can be sustained.

Global economy sees weakest quarter since 2012

Global economic growth failed to pick up from the sluggish pace seen in May, indicating that the world remains mired in the worst growth phase for three-and-a-half years. Once again, the lack of any growth driver was evident: weak rates of expansion in the US and UK, linked in part to rising political uncertainty, a struggling recovery in the Eurozone and renewed downturn in Japan coincided with an ongoing near-stagnation of the emerging markets.

UK PMI signals near-stalling of economy in June

The PMI surveys indicate that the pace of UK economic growth slowed to just 0.2% in the second quarter, losing further momentum in June as Brexit anxiety intensified.

US flash PMI surveys signal economic malaise extending into June

The flash PMIs for June paint a disappointing picture of the underlying health of the US economy at the end of the second quarter.

US Fed keeps policy on hold

As expected, the US Fed kept policy on hold at its June meeting, worried about signs of a weakening labour market in particular.

UK retailers enjoy spring surge in sales

UK retail sales surged higher in May in a sign that consumer spending continues to boost the economy.

Global all-industry output loses growth momentum amid slowdowns in manufacturing and services

Although the global economy remained in expansion mode during May, a subdued trend in output growth prevailed, with the rate of expansion being among the slowest in over three-and-a-half years. Sector data highlighted intermediate goods as the weakest link in manufacturing, where a renewed slump in production was recorded to suggest that other manufacturers were pulling back on their purchases of components. In services, the overall slowdown was reflective of stagnant activity at consumer-facing service providers.

UK unemployment falls to lowest in over a decade, but job creation slows

News of better than expected health of the labour market in April suggests that employment is holding up despite signs that the economy is in the midst of a soft patch.

UK construction upturn in April belies weakening building sector trend

As with the better than expected official manufacturing data for April, official construction data paint a brighter picture of the economy at the start of the second quarter than the business surveys. But dig deeper and there's good reason to treat the better news with caution. The underlying trend in fact appears to be one of weakening output, albeit to some extent due to what will hopefully be temporary uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum.

Nigeria PMI signals renewed downturn as recession looms

Recent data releases suggest that Nigeria is at risk of sliding into recession. After GDP figures published last month showed that the economy had contracted over the first quarter, the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI signalled a downturn for the third time in four months during May. With inflation, currency weakness and fuel shortages all depressing the economy, Nigeria looks unlikely to escape recession in the second quarter.

UK factory output surges in April, but surveys cast doubt on sector's resilience

The UK manufacturing sector enjoyed its strongest expansion since July 2012 at the start of the second quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics, but any sparkle looks to be short-lived.

Global economic growth falters in May

Global economic growth stumbled in May, according to PMI data, suggesting the weak start to the year has persisted into Q2. The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit from its worldwide surveys, fell from 51.6 in April to 51.1, its second-lowest reading since the end of 2012. Emerging markets once again led the slowdown, with the PMI signalling a return to slight contraction after two months of marginal growth. Developed world growth also remained firmly in the doldrums in May, having slowed to the second-lowest in just over three years.

UK 'Brexit' uncertainty hurting over one-in-three companies

More than one-in-three companies report that uncertainty over the outcome of the EU referendum is having a detrimental effect on their business. One-in-twelve firms report a strongly detrimental impact.

Global economic growth falters in May

Global economic growth stumbled in May, according to PMI data, suggesting the weak start to the year has persisted into the second quarter. While emerging markets continue to languish, the developed world remains stuck in the lower gear it downshifted into back in February. The survey data highlight slowing second quarter growth in the US and UK, a still-sluggish Eurozone expansion and a renewed downturn in Japan.

US labour market gloom adds to PMI signal of second quarter malaise

A sharp slowing in the pace of hiring in the US, and an all-round gloomy employment report for May, raises serious doubts about whether the Fed will vote to hike interest rates again in the summer.

Chinese factory job cull continues as manufacturing activity stumbles in May

Manufacturing operating conditions in China deteriorated at the fastest rate for three months in May, reflecting a renewed fall in new orders, declining output, destocking and ongoing job losses. Price pressures meanwhile persisted, largely on the back of rising global commodity prices.

Asian manufacturing downturn extends into May as export trend deteriorates

The Asian manufacturing downturn persisted into its fifteenth consecutive month in May, with the rate of decline accelerating slightly to the fastest since February. Markit's manufacturing PMI surveys, compiled on behalf of Caixin in China and Nikkei across seven other Asian economies, recorded a pan-Asian PMI of 49.0 in May, down from 49.2 in April.

US flash PMI downturn dampens second quarter rebound hopes

Hopes of US economic growth rebounding in the second quarter were dealt a blow by weak flash PMI data from Markit. A slowdown in the pace of growth signalled by the May surveys suggests the US economy could see GDP rise at a disappointing rate similar to that recorded in the opening quarter of the year.

UK consumers prop up ailing economy in first quarter

Updated official data confirm that the pace of UK economic growth slowed in the opening quarter of the year; a trend which survey data maintained into the spring.

UK house prices show signs of cooling after three-year surge

UK house prices fell 0.8% in April, according to the Halifax House Price Index. The fall followed a 2.2% surge in March, and still leaves home prices some 9.2% higher than a year ago. That's nevertheless a cooling in the annual rate of increase to the lowest since November of last year, suggesting that house price inflation may be starting to moderate

US flash manufacturing PMI sinks to lowest since September 2009

Disappointing flash manufacturing PMI data cast doubt on the ability of the US economy to rebound from its weak start to the year. The seasonally adjusted Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI™ sank to 50.5 in May, down from 50.8 in April, its lowest since September 2009.

Japan flash manufacturing PMI signals steepening export-led downturn

PMI data point to Japan's all-important manufacturing economy suffering its steepest downturn since late 2012. The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.2 in April to 47.6 in May, its lowest since December 2012.

Eurozone flash PMI weakness fuels concerns over second quarter slowdown

A disappointing flash eurozone PMI for May adds further to the suggestion that the robust pace of economic growth seen in the first quarter will prove temporary.

Nigeria's economic worries mount as inflation hits near six-year high

Nigerian inflation accelerated to the fastest in almost six years during April, according to CPI figures released earlier today by the National Bureau of Statistics. Consumer prices rose 13.7% on an annual basis, up from 12.8% in March. The latest pick-up in price pressures was the sixth in as many months.

US retail sales buoy hopes of second quarter economic rebound

Hopes were raised for a second quarter rebound in the US economy as retail sales smashed expectations in April. Faster than expected sales growth and the prospect of an overall pick-up in the second quarter will further raise expectations of the Fed hiking interest rates again in coming months. However, with signs of the upturn remaining fragile, the chance of a June hike still looks low.

Hong Kong economy at risk of recession as GDP falls in first quarter

Hong Kong's economy contracted in the first quarter of 2016, and weak PMI survey data point to a heightened risk of a further decline in the second quarter, which would mean the economy has slipped back into a technical recession.

Bank of England warns of economic risks from Brexit

The Bank of England left policy unchanged at its May meeting, as widely expected. No serious discussions on any change in policy are anticipated at least until after the June 23rd referendum, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the vote.

Global manufacturing output growth slows, underpinned by weak consumer demand

Global economic growth picked up slightly at the start of the second quarter of 2016, but was still one of the weakest seen over the past three years. The JPMorgan Global PMI^TM sector data indicate that services firms were the main drivers of higher global output, as manufacturers reported the second-slowest expansion seen in nearly three-and-a-half years.

Global financial activity rebounds in April

Markit's global sector PMI^TM data signalled renewed growth in the financial sector in April, following a weak spell in February and March. Solid increases in activity were registered in banks, real estate and insurance, which were ranked second, fourth and sixth in the global sector league table respectively. That said, other financial services posted a further drop in activity and was among the bottom-ranked sectors.

Struggling UK factories weigh on economic growth

UK factory output disappointed in March, confirming that the sector acted as a drag on the wider economy in the first quarter. Furthermore, worse may be to come in the second quarter.

Global economy stuck in low gear at start of Q2

Global economic growth ticked higher for a second successive month in April, according to the JPMorgan Global PMI™, compiled by Markit, but was still one of the weakest rates seen for over three years. The PMI is broadly consistent with global GDP growing at an annual rate of just 1.5% (at market prices) compared with a long-run average of 2.3%. Developed world growth continued to edge higher from February's recent low, though remained weaker than at any time seen since early-2013, while emerging markets returned to stagnation.

UK trade deficit at eight-year high

A record goods trade deficit in the first quarter is the latest sign that the UK's economic woes are deepening.

UK employers turn to temporary staff amid rising uncertainty

Signs of a slowing economy and uncertainty around Britain's EU referendum appear to have resulted in a shift in emphasis from permanent to temporary hiring among UK employers. The Report on Jobs, published today by Markit and the REC, shows that recruitment agencies' permanent staff placements rose at the slowest pace for seven months in April. In contrast, billings from the employment of temporary/contract staff increased at the strongest rate since March 2015.

Waning US hiring trend adds to signs of second quarter economic weakness

The pace of hiring in the US eased more than expected in April, adding to signs that the slowing in the rate of economic growth in the first quarter may persist into the second quarter.

New election called amid signs of political uncertainty affecting the Spanish economy

Spain is set for a further period of political uncertainty as the deadline passed for the country's political parties to come to an agreement on the formation of a government following the December 20^th election. A new vote has been called for June 26^th, with parliament likely to meet again towards the end of July. If, as seems likely, the result of the new election is similar to that of the first, it could be late into the third quarter of the year before Spain has a permanent government in place.

Global manufacturing stagnates at start of second quarter

Global PMI data indicated a near-stagnation of the manufacturing economy in April. The JPMorgan PMI, compiled by Markit from its worldwide business surveys, fell from 50.6 in March to 50.1, barely above the no-change threshold of 50.0. The latest reading was the lowest since December 2012 with the exception of the stagnation seen in March of this year.

UK employees report higher pay reviews in 2016, but average wage rise of only 1.3% signalled

Survey data collected in March and April point to disappointingly weak UK pay reviews in 2016, though wage pressures have picked up slightly compared to 2015.

Latest five-year socio-economic development plan launched in Vietnam

April saw the National Assembly in Vietnam agree a new five-year socio-economic development plan covering the years 2016-2020. As part of this plan a number of economic targets have been set. This note looks at the targets and attempts to judge how likely the country is to achieve them. But first, we take a look at the latest PMI data on the performance of the manufacturing sector to gauge the current economic situation.

Bank of Japan holds off from further stimulus despite economic woes

Official data confirmed the poor start to the year suffered by Japan's manufacturers. Data from the Ministry of Economics, Trade and Industry (METI) recorded a 1.0% drop in manufacturing output over the first quarter, corroborating Nikkei PMI data which have shown a deterioration in business conditions in the sector.

US official data corroborate survey signals of stalling first quarter growth

US economic growth slowed sharply to a near stand-still in the first quarter, and early signs indicate that the malaise extended into the second quarter.

US Fed holds policy but edges door open for further rate hikes

The US Federal Reserve kept policy on hold at its April FOMC meeting, as widely expected. Since hiking rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, appetite for further policy tightening has waned, though the statement accompanying the meeting still suggests the door remains open to two more rate hikes this year.

UK economic growth slows in first quarter, with further easing likely ahead

UK economic growth slowed in the first quarter, according to official data, and key indicators point to a further deterioration in the second quarter.

Worsening UK economic environment points to slower growth ahead

A slowing in the pace of UK economic growth is signalled by a worsening of financial conditions and an increase in economic uncertainty.

US flash services PMI raises hopes of faster second quarter GDP growth

Flash PMI survey data from Markit suggest the US economy could see GDP rise at an increased rate in the second quarter, but growth is clearly far more fragile than this time last year.

US manufacturing reports worst month for 6½ years

US factories reported their worst month for just over six-and-a-half years in April, dashing hopes that first quarter weakness will prove temporary.

Japan flash PMI signals steepening manufacturing downturn as exports slump

The downturn of Japan's manufacturing sector gathered speed in April. The Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 in March to 48.0, its lowest since January 2013 and the second successive month for which the index has signalled a deterioration in the sector's overall health.

UK unemployment rises and household mood darkens

The UK labour market showed signs of cooling in February and survey data signalled that households are becoming increasingly concerned about both job security and rising prices in recent months.