US flash PMIs show economic growth rate faltering at year end

The first US interest rate hike for almost a decade comes in a month during which the pace of economic growth showed signs of faltering, as highlighted by the rate of expansion in output one of the weakest seen over the past three years.

Promotions help drive November UK retail sales surge

UK retail sales surged as shoppers took advantage of ‘Black Friday’ discounts. Sales were up 1.7% in November, smashing expectations of a mere 0.5% rise, according to the Office for National Statistics. The increase pushes sales 1.5% higher in the fourth quarter so far compared to the third quarter, adding to signs that the economy has enjoyed a strong end to the year. GDP looks set to rise by 0.6% in the final three months of the year.

UK pay growth fall gives policymakers room to hold interest rates low

The UK labour market remained something of an enigma in October. Unemployment fell to a seven-year low but pay growth also fell, once again confounding expectations that a tightening labour market will inevitably drive wages and salaries higher. As such, the data give the Bank of England scope to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.5% for longer.

US manufacturing shows signs of stalling at year end

Just as the Fed looks set to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stalling. The flash PMI results show factories ending the year with the weakest growth of new orders since the global financial crisis.

Japan flash PMI signals steady manufacturing upturn at year end

Japanese manufacturers enjoyed a solid end to the year, with activity growing at a rate close to November’s 20-month high. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI registered 52.5, down from 52.6 in November but remained comfortably above the 50.0 ‘no change’ level, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading.

Eurozone factory output shows solid 0.6% gain at start of fourth quarter

Euro area factories enjoyed a good start to the fourth quarter, with output rising 0.6% according to official data. Looking through the volatile data suggests the industrial sector is on a modest recovery path, confirming the relatively upbeat message from PMI business surveys.

US retail sales pick up ahead of Fed meeting

November saw a marked improvement in US consumer spending, tilting the odds further towards the Fed hiking rates next week, something which already looks a near certainty. However, the data also contain a note of caution to policy makers, in that the underlying retail sales trend may be weakening.

Bank of England holds interest rates awaiting stronger pay growth

The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at their record low of 0.5% at their December MPC meeting. Once again, only one of the nine committee members, Ian McCafferty, voted for a tightening of policy.

UK trade deficit widest on record once oil and volatile items are stripped out

The UK’s ongoing disappointing trade performance is highlighted by the latest official data. If oil and other volatile items are excluded, the trade deficit was the biggest on record in October. However, there are signs from the more recent survey data that exports are picking up again, aided by reviving demand in the euro area in particular.

Global growth strengthens as emerging markets stabilise

The JPMorgan Global PMI rose for a second month in November to a level just above the average seen in the year to date. The survey is broadly consistent with annual global GDP growth of just over 2%. The global upturn continued to be led by services, but perhaps the most welcome news was a further revival in manufacturing growth from the near-stalling seen in September and pointing to recovering trade flows.

UK recruitment activity continues to pick up pace in November

Latest evidence from Markit’s recruitment industry survey signalled a further strengthening of the UK’s labour market in November. The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs, published today, signalled that the number of staff placed in permanent roles showed the largest monthly increase since April. Agencies’ temporary/contract staff billings also increased at a sharper rate, with growth accelerating to a five-month high.

US employment surge gives green light for December rate rise

Better-than-expected news on the buoyancy of the US labour market gives policymakers the clear go-ahead to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006.

Developed world growth picks up alongside steadier emerging markets

The global economy grew at a slightly faster rate in November, led by upturns in the US, UK, Japan and the eurozone, which all saw either faster rates of expansion or robust growth holding steady at October’s rate. Emerging markets also stabilised, helped in particular by a return to growth in China, although downturns in other emerging Asian countries and Brazil remain a key source of concern.

UK PMI surveys signal solid growth but stagnant prices in fourth quarter

A welcome upturn in service sector expansion helped counter slower growth in manufacturing and construction in November, suggesting the UK continues to enjoy the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid economic growth and low inflation. However, signs of an upturn in earnings growth raise question marks over just how long inflation, and therefore interest rates, will remain low for.

China PMI surveys signal return to growth in November

China’s economy expanded, albeit only modestly, for the first time in four months, according to November’s Caixin PMI surveys, heralding a welcome return to growth. However, inflows of new orders fell slightly, employment continued to drop and average prices charged for goods and services decreased at the fastest rate for 20 months, highlighting an intensification of deflationary pressures during the month.

Eurozone economies dominate global manufacturing growth rankings

Global manufacturing remained stuck firmly in the slow lane in November, hindered by slumping demand in many key emerging markets.

Chinese production stabilises as export wins help offset weakening domestic demand

China’s manufacturing economy contracted for the eleventh time in the past 12 months in November, according to the Markit-compiled Caixin PMI survey, but the rate of decline eased to the weakest since June.