US economy rebounds in second quarter

Updated GDP numbers deliver a double-punch to US economy doom-mongers, painting a reassuringly bright picture of the health of the US economy so far this year and raising the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in September.

A simple guide to nowcasting Taiwan’s GDP using the PMI

PMI data can be used to provide a simple but surprisingly accurate guide to Taiwan’s GDP growth rate well in advance of official statistics.

US flash PMI data point to upturn in economic growth at start of third quarter

Signs of faster growth in the service sector at the start of the third quarter add to the likelihood of the FOMC moving closer to hiking interest rates for the first time in over six years.

UK economy shows impressive rebound in second quarter

Solid growth in the second quarter is welcome news that the UK economy continues to expand at an impressive pace in spite of headwinds from the general election, the stronger pound and eurozone worries.
The Bank of England had already pencilled in a 0.7% expansion, so today’s data merely confirm the growth trajectory built into the Bank’s forecasts and do little to change the outlook for interest rates. However, by the same measure, the data support the case for rates to start rising sooner rather than later.

Upturn in Japan manufacturing PMI fuels third quarter growth hopes

Japan’s manufacturing economy showed tentative signs of stirring back into life at the start of the third quarter after its worst performance for a year in the second quarter. However, signs of inflation picking up remain disappointingly scarce.

Eurozone flash PMI holds close to four-year high despite Greek uncertainty

Eurozone economic growth lost only slight momentum in July amid the rollercoaster events of the Greek debt crisis during the month. The rate of expansion remained reassuringly robust to suggest that it was by-and-large ‘business as usual’ for the region as a whole.

Chinese manufacturers report steepest downturn for 15 months at start of third quarter

The Chinese economy started the third quarter with the steepest contraction of manufacturing activity for 15 months, according to survey data. The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit, fell from 49.4 in June to 48.2 in July, its lowest since April of last year. The latest reading signalled a contraction of the manufacturing economy for a fifth consecutive month.

UK retail sales dip fuels uncertainty over policy outlook

Falling retail sales and widespread price discounting will strengthen the conviction of dovish policymakers that underlying inflationary pressures remain benign, and that the economy still faces a deflation risk.

Reliable PMI-based nowcasts of UK GDP available two months ahead of official data

PMI™ business survey data are widely used to provide an advance indication of official data, in particular economic growth as measured by gross domestic product. The survey data have the advantage of being published monthly with minimal delay, meaning reliable estimates of GDP can be made more than two months before official data are available.

Expectations build for Bank of England rate hike by end of year

The minutes from the latest Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting reveal a mood of hawkishness developing steadily among policymakers.

US inflation upturn adds to scope for 2015 rate hike

US inflation moved back into positive territory in June, with a 0.3% increase in prices during the month pushing the annual rate of inflation up to 0.1% from zero in May.

China's economic growth holds steady at 7.0% in second quarter

Official data indicated the Chinese economy grew at an annual rate of 7.0% in the second quarter, unchanged on the pace seen in the first three months of the year and raising hopes that recent stimulus efforts – including four cuts to interest rates since November – are helping to prevent a further slowdown. So far, however, there are mixed messages in relation to growth momentum heading into the second half of the year.

Global electronics sector slides into decline

The global electronics industry slipped into decline in June for the first time for over two years. The downturn was fuelled by the largest monthly drop in new orders for electronic goods seen since March 2013, which caused producers to cut output at the fastest rate since November 2012. Job creation in the sector meanwhile fell to the lowest since 2013 as producers sought to ease back on hiring amid the downturn in demand.

UK policy debate roused as wage growth picks up but unemployment rises

A mixed bag of news on the UK labour market adds plenty to the policy debate at the Bank of England.

US retail sales downturn adds to economic outlook uncertainty

Unexpectedly weak retail sales data add to signs that the US economy is slowing again after pulling out of the soft patch earlier in the year. Any signs of slower growth could easily dissuade the Fed from hiking interest rates later this year, pushing the first rate rise into 2016.

UK inflation falls back to zero

UK consumer price inflation fell back to zero in June, according to the Office for National Statistics, down from 0.1% in May. Inflation continues to run at its lowest for half a century, but all eyes turn to tomorrow’s wage data to see if longer term underlying price pressures are building, which could prompt a policy response later in the year.

Irish firms most optimistic globally

According to Markit’s latest Business Outlook survey, Irish companies remain strongly optimistic that growth of activity will be recorded over the coming year. Sentiment in the service sector is particularly buoyant, leading Irish firms to signal the strongest optimism of all the countries covered by the survey.

Emerging market malaise drags global business confidence to post-crisis low

The Markit Global Business Outlook Survey, which looks at expectations for the year ahead across 6,500 companies, found corporate optimism to have dipped to a post-financial crisis low in June.

Mixed messages on UK economy as trade deficit narrows but construction output falls

The UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world shrank far more than expected in May, down to the lowest for almost two years. It’s wise to treat the monthly improvement with caution, however, as the data are volatile, and survey data indicate that that the export trend in particular has in fact deteriorated in the second quarter.

Bank of England holds policy amid uncertain outlook

There were no surprises at the Bank of England as the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates at their record low of 0.5% after their July gathering.

Global growth hit by steepest EM downturn for six years

Global economic growth slowed for a third month running in June, according to PMI data. The JPMorgan Global PMI™, compiled by Markit, sank to its lowest since January, to signal a rate of global GDP growth of approximately 2% pa. Developed world growth hit the weakest since January, though remained solid. The same cannot be said for emerging markets, which saw the steepest downturn for just over six years.

UK manufacturing output falls for second month running

A second successive monthly fall in manufacturing output means the goods-producing sector will act as a drag on the economy in the second quarter, leaving the upturn reliant once again on the service sector. The disappointing performance of the country’s factories, linked in part to competitiveness being hit by the strong pound, will no doubt act as a deterrent to any imminent hike in interest rates.

Global economic growth slows amid renewed emerging market downturn

Global economic growth slowed for a third month running in June, according to worldwide PMI survey data. The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by Markit, sank to 53.1 from 53.6 in May, its lowest since January, to signal a rate of global GDP growth of approximately 2% per annum.

Eurozone economy enjoying best growth for four years despite ‘Grexit’ fears

The Greek crisis appears to have so far had little impact on the eurozone economy as a whole. Economic growth in the currency bloc rose to a four-year high in June, according to the Markit Eurozone PMI. The Composite Output Index hit 54.2 in June, up from 53.6 in May. The upturn in June also took the average index reading for the second quarter as a whole to a four-year high.

UK PMI surveys point to post-election economic rebound

The UK PMI surveys indicate that the pace of economic growth rebounded in June, recovering from what appears to have been a brief lull caused by the general election. Slower growth in a manufacturing sector that continues to be hurt by the strength of sterling was offset by faster rates of expansion in services and construction, suggesting GDP growth will accelerate from 0.4% in the first quarter of the year to 0.5% in the three months to June.

Fed to remain cautious as hiring remains impressive but wage growth disappoints

Yet another month of impressive job creation pushes the Fed closer to hiking interest rates later this year, albeit with the Fed likely to remain in a cautious mood.

World’s factories report worst quarter for two years amid Asian downturn

Global manufacturing activity slowed and edged closer towards stagnation in June. The JPMorgan PMI™, compiled by Markit, fell to 51.0 from 51.3 in May, matching April’s 21-month low. The average PMI reading for the second quarter is the weakest seen for two years.

UK manufacturing PMI slides to weakest in over two years

A sharper than expected manufacturing slowdown adds to signs that UK economic growth could disappoint in 2015. The disappointment caused sterling to slide as the weak numbers pushed back expectations of when the Bank of England is likely to start hiking interest rates.

Greece PMI signals deepening downturn as intensifying crisis hits economy

The Greek debt crisis continued to take a toll on the economy in June, with the country facing a deepening recession as consumer and business spending continued to decline during the month. However, there are currently few signs of significant contagion of the crisis to other countries.